A well-known cryptocurrency expert with a PhD in engineering, Benjamin Cowen, recently pointed out some alarming facts about Bitcoin’s recent performance in a tweet. As the next halving event draws near, ideas have been provoked by Cowen’s thesis on what the future could bring.
The expert pointed out that Bitcoin’s return for the month of August was -11.31%, nearly matching the -11.71% average of the two years prior to the coin’s halving. Looking into the historical data, he discovered that, with an average price of $21,400, Bitcoin’s average return in all previous Septembers during pre-halving years was -17.29%.
With an average price of $24,400, the losses were less severe when only the last two Septembers were taken into account, at -5.66%. Another intriguing aspect is that, in the past ten years, Bitcoin has only twice in September demonstrated profitability: in 2015 and 2016.
Is Bitcoin doomed?
The observations of Cowen support his theory that Bitcoin typically displays unfavourable dynamics before to a halving event. Investors are left considering the ramifications of these past tendencies since the next BTC halving is anticipated in less than 220 days.
It is crucial to take into account the data’s limitations. It is difficult to say for sure if the negative trends shown in August will continue because the sample size of pre-halving periods is so tiny. But since the beginning of September, BTC has once more displayed negative tendencies, raising concerns about its potential performance in the future.
Questions regarding Bitcoin’s price trend persist as it gets closer to its subsequent halving.
