As of Q3, the value of digital assets is in the midst of a severe bear market, and bitcoin has had a sharp decline since reaching an all-time high in November 2021. The battered Bitcoin may soon, however, find some respite and rise to $63,000 by March 2024. Here’s why.
By March 2024, when the cryptocurrency is most likely to halve mining reward, a program designed to slow supply growth by 50% every four years, bitcoin could finally experience the much-needed rally.
Markus Thielen, head of research and strategy at crypto services provider Matrixport, which has $10 billion in assets under management, made that most recent prediction.
The positive forecast is based on the idea that the price of bitcoin will continue to rise, as it did in the months leading up to the July 2016 and April 2020 halvings.
On both times, bitcoin experienced positive winds 15 months before the halves and traded 39% higher than it did two years prior to the halving.
“Price started to rally 15 months before the next halving (November 2022) and they were up 39% from trading 24 months ago. This would mean that bitcoin would be around $63,160 by March 2024 ($45,538 in March 2022). *(1+39%) = $63,160).
Three reward halvings have taken place for bitcoin thus far. Following the third halving on May 12, 2020, prices surged from $8,800 to $69,000 in just 18 months. The initial plan was for the fourth halving to occur in May 2024.
The reward halving is now expected to occur in March 2024, however, as a result of the bear market’s dramatic increase in the committed hash rate, or processing power, for the blocks mined.
