On March 16, Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Bitmex, published a blog post called “Energy Cancelled,” which describes the economics behind the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Hayes explains in his 26-minute long opinion piece that historians may point to February 26, 2022, as the time in history when the “Petro Dollar / Euro Dollar monetary system” ended.
Speculations on an independent international monetary and financial system, free from the petrodollar and eurodollar monetary system
There have been many economic calamities since the start of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, as financial conditions around the world have tightened and Russia has been sanctioned by a wide range of countries. Analysts and economists believe that the war and sanctions could have negative effects on the world economy and on March 5 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that “the economic consequences are already very serious”. Days after the IMF warning, US lawmakers introduced a bill sanctioning Russia’s gold reserves.
Reports indicated on March 13, that the Russian Federation finance minister, Anton Siluanov, explained that half of the country’s gold and foreign reserves were frozen. “This is about half of these reserves that we had. We have a total amount of reserves of about $640 bln,” Siluanov said. “Currently, we cannot use about $300 billion of these reserves,” the Russian finance minister added.
Siluanov’s statements have led to speculation regarding an independent international monetary and financial system between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and China. Also, a lot of fuzziness and confusion regarding the Russian’s frozen gold. Journalist Pepe Escobar points out in his report titled “Say Hello to Russian Gold and Chinese Petroyuan,” that there is a mystery to be solved. “Where is that frozen Russian gold? asks Escobar’s report.
Bitmex Co-Founder Arthur Hayes Outlines the Consequences Tied to Canceling the World’s Largest Energy Exporter
Meanwhile, the co-founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Bitmex, Arthur Hayes, published a blog post on March 16, that touches upon canceling the world’s largest energy exporter and the end of the “Petro Dollar / Euro Dollar monetary system”
The blog post written by Hayes is extremely long, but comprehensive and filled with sourced data. Hayes points out that historians will likely call February 26, 2022 the end of the “Petro Dollar” and “Euro Dollar” controlled monetary system.
Furthermore, Hayes believes a financial crisis will take place and it will stretch across every aspect of the financial system worldwide. “I am 100% certain that there will be a financial crisis of epic proportions predicated on losses faced by commodity producers and traders who touch every aspect of the globalised financial system,” the Bitmex co-founder’s blog post explains. Hayes added:
You cannot remove the world’s largest energy producer – and the security that these raw material resources represent – from the financial system without serious unintended and unforeseen consequences.
Vulnerabilities Tethered to Centralized, Permissioned Digital Networks
The blog post written by the Bitmex co-founder details how the U.S. and the dollar became a dominant force in the world of finance. At one time America was dominant in industrial and manufacturing businesses, but Hayes says these days “America exports finance, not goods, to the world on a macro scale.”
Hayes also spoke about fiat currencies and how humans have devised ways to send “value electronically over centralized and authorized digital networks.” While the SWIFT payment network is operated by a number of countries, Hayes insists that SWIFT is “effectively controlled by the US and the EU”.
Hayes explains that there are vulnerabilities when a ruling nation “decides to block access to the network to any participants.” He says that the point begs the question: “Should you ‘save’ in assets that ride on this centralised, permissioned digital monetary network?” The blog post highlights that there’s a level of trust given that a nation state will not “expropriate your ‘savings.’” The Bitmex founder’s blog post adds:
Remember this, you own nothing, you simply “rent” your net worth both as an individual or as a sovereign to the entity that operates the centralized and authorized fiat digital money network.
Hayes Believes if Gold Marches Its Way Above $10K, Bitcoin Will March Its Way to a Million
Further into the blog post, Hayes says that he believes gold will “phase shift” a great deal higher than the price is today. He believes competition and demand “will push the marginal last price well north of $10,000, and we could see stupendous prices for gold that seems unfathomable.”
Gold’s jump to $10,000 an ounce or more will “psychologically shock” global asset markets, Hayes notes. Hayes wholeheartedly believes that most durable assets people use to hedge themselves will skyrocket in value, including bitcoin (BTC).
“As gold marches its way above $10,000, bitcoin will march its way to $1,000,000. The bear market in fiat currencies will trigger the largest wealth transfer the world has ever seen,” Hayes explains. He adds that he believes both gold and bitcoin are forms of hard money assets. “Both are hard money, one is analog (gold) one is digital (bitcoin),” Hayes writes.
Towards the end of the Bitmex executive’s blog post, he describes the pros and cons of storing wealth in gold and how cumbersome it can be to store. “Most readers don’t have a freeport safe in which to store their yellow pet stones — instead, you’d like a more portable store of wealth,” says Hayes.
Hayes finishes his blog post by repeating that “you cannot cancel the largest energy producer from a monetary system without massive repercussions.” He deduces after the fog of war is dispersed, the economy will “present a situation where hard money instruments rule all of global trade.”
