The recent bitcoin price surge has left many market participants in a well-known phase called “Disbelief”. Many technical analysts were waiting for the RSI indicator and the price trend to break through the durable resistance line that formed during the day. Here, this break is studied from both a technical and an ondog point of view.
Technical Analysis
Long-Term
Bitcoin had been stuck below an important resistance trendline (blue line) for a couple of months. Eventually, it broke above it with a strong green candle and spiked almost 11% in a single day.
On the other hand, BTC simultaneously broke the resistance RSI trendline and formed a nice pattern to confirm the breakout. Currently, the price is below the 100D MA, which is a critical resistance, and it is possible to reject the price from the $42.5000 level.
Regardless, Bitcoin needs to form a higher high above $44.4K daily to confirm the trend reversal. The following resistance levels are $44K-$45K and then $50K-$52K ranges.
Short term
In the lower timeframes, we can notice another significant resistance trend line (green line) which has constantly rejected the price. The bullish momentum subsided and the price reached the trendline. We have to wait and see if bitcoin can break the trendline or be rejected. Additionally, the following resistance levels have been specified with the white horizontal lines.
Onchain Analysis
Looking at the SOPR of the short-term and long-term holders, it is evident that a particular pattern in this Onchian metric could play out again. During last year’s stock market crash, the market experienced a period in which short-term holders consistently made losses.
Near the end of this period, a massive rise in LTH-SOPR scared many retailers of the long-term holders. A large amount of these coins were also deposited into the exchanges. However, it seemed turned out to be a bear trap because the bottom was in, and the market rallied to a new ATH.
Now the same pattern is in play again, but this time the massive spike in LTH SOPR was due to Bitfinex hacked coins moving after a long time. Anyway, given the STH-SOPR, the bottom seems to be close if it’s already in it.
